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Why is the United States the leader of the world (and will continue to be)?

  Esade Alumni held its traditional Refresher Program “Economic and Financial Prospects for 2026,” featuring professor F. Xavier Mena
F. Xavier Mena

Esade Alumni held its traditional Refresher Program in conjunction with the Esade Alumni Finance Club entitled “Economic and Financial Prospects for 2026: Why is the United States the Leader of the World (and will continue to be)?” The talk was by F. Xavier Mena, professor of Economics at Esade-Universidad Ramon and full professor in the Department of Economics, Finances, and Accounting at Esade Business & Law School.

The “Economic and Financial Prospects” session this 2025-2026 academic year was divided into two parts. In the first one, Professor Mena analyzed the historical and institutional reasons that have made the United States the political, economic, financial, technological, and military leader of the world. The analysis also included prospects of future leadership scenarios of the United States.

The roots of the leader

Perspectivas económicas

Mena started his analysis with a glance back in time. The U.S.’s leadership is not by chance but based on an institutional design that dates back to the 1789 Constitution and its checks and balances. “They have buying or conquering territories in their DNA,” Mena reminded the audience as he explained how the country went from the thirteen original colonies to the current fifty states.

Mena highlighted the role of immigrants, who led the Industrial Revolution with inventions that changed the world (from Morse code to the revolver), and the consolidation of the large trusts of figures like Rockefeller, Carnegie, and Bell. But the U.S. turned things around after World War II and built a system tailored to its own interests, with the dollar as the global currency. After the war, it was agreed that all the world currencies would have a fixed exchange rate against the dollar, and that the dollar would be the only currency that could be converted into gold for foreign central banks. The price was set at $35 per ounce of gold, “an outrageous privilege,” Mena stated, which turned the U.S. currency into the safe-haven asset par excellence.

The U.S. has managed to reinvent itself despite historical challenges, like the 1970’s oil crisis and president Nixon’s ending of the gold standard. Today, it is the leading oil producer in the world thanks to fracking and is focusing on next-generation nuclear energy (small modular reactors, or SMR’s). Likewise, its recent operation in Venezuela has opened its access to the oil from the Orinoco Belt and Maracaibo, which will enable U.S. industry to ensure its long-term supply.

Regarding the current agenda, professor Mena focused on different strategic points, such as Greenland, a key territory due to its critical minerals. “The U.S. will encourage Greenland’s independence,” Mena predicted, suggesting a model similar to Micronesia’s: a sovereign country whose defense and resources are under Washington’s aegis.

Mena warned about the rise of a tech elite that “does not believe in either democracy or the Federal Reserve” and is allied with business monopolies. With profiles like J.D. Vance, this could transform U.S. policy in the future.

 

Prospects for 2026: A bipolar, desglobalized world

F.Xavier Mena

In the second part of his talk, professor Mena analyzed the economy at the close of fiscal year 2025 and the forecasts for 2026, with the thunderclouds of the U.S. economy, the resurgence of the German economy, and the risk of Spain’s economy plunging suddenly.

“The uncertainty indicators are off the charts,” he said in reference to the last Davos Forum report, which points to many risks for 2026. “It is difficult to predict the economy with Trump in the White House,” he said, because uncertainty is the norm in the United States under Trump. “If Trump meddles with the interest rates, the role of the dollar will be questioned across the globe,” Mena warned. He believes that lowering taxes to offset tariffs is a strategy that will not work and will only increase the U.S.’s debt. Mena believes that the U.S.’s leadership is endangered not due to the lack of defense or technology because of the possibility that its own financial institutions (like the Federal Reserve and the dollar) are losing credibility around the world.

The diagnosis could not be clearer: multilateralism has died. We are heading towards a bipolar world with two technology and defense standards: the U.S. versus China. Even though China is the main rival, Mena asserted that “in the short term the Chinese are doomed” due to their internal imbalances and the drop in exports. “There will be trade negotiations with China to demand reciprocity, just as with Europe. And the U.S. wants Chinese savings to be made available to Wall Street. I’m afraid that if there are any unexpected obstacles along the way, the U.S. will give way in its protection of Taiwan.”

As for the Old Continent, he said that it is facing the dilemma of defense. “We have to get ready for fiscal tightening: the farmers are going to pay the price when spending is diverted to defense.” Specifically about Spain, Mena celebrated the strength of both tourism and the stock market, but he sounded a warning call: “There is social drama over access to housing and a structural deficit in pensions.”

Professor Mena closed the session with a warning: “This year, 2026, will still be a labyrinth.” In this scenario of deglobalization and inflationary tensions, the United States is maintaining its hegemony thanks to an unbeatable combination: its industrial policy, powerful companies, Wall Street, and unequalled military dissuasion.

Watch the video of the complete session here

 

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